All that dither – 28-Mar-2020

Today’s dramatic increase in fatalities in the UK is a damning indictment of the government’s (and of its advisers’) herd immunity policy of two/three weeks ago, when people who died today were probably being infected. Today’s grim stats have jumped from 759 cumulative deaths to 1019 (+260). This corresponds to a growth rate of 43% and a projected doubling time that has dropped from 2.8 days to 1.15 days. The dramatic reduction of doubling time for the UK is clearly seen in the figure below, in comparison with other countries. For an explanation of the statistics behind this figure, please refer to this post.

This is exactly what critics of the direction originally taken by the UK government two weeks ago were in fear: a waste of time turning into a waste of lives. Luckily this direction seems to have changed more recently, with a tighter policy of social distancing. Let’s hope it works